Dogecoin has 0.15% orphan rate with 1-minute blocks. Given that empirical data, our modeled 0.41-1.94% is conservative. Nervos has 10s blocks and it sits at ~3% orphan rate. Should we consume some margin to reap the benefits of faster blocks? Hell yes, even with 1-min blocks we’ll be far from cutting it close. Satoshi was comfortable reasoning with ~10% orphan rate as his example for the 10-minute choice, five times our tolerable threshold.
Network will work fine even with imperfect conditions, even with 2% orphan rates. Why are orphan rates a problem? Because they skew mining payoffs. End users don’t typically notice orphans because their TX just gets mined in whichever block wins the race. But at 2% the skew is still too low for it to make much difference between miners’ profitability. BTC has lowest orphan rates and yet miners still clustered, why? There must be some other, more relevant, reason - like hardware, energy, and capital access, not orphan rates.
And it’s not the network who experiences “temporary connectivity problems” - it is individual participants, who will have incentive to resolve it ASAP. That’s the beauty of a distributed network - the network can’t go down or degrade just because some participants experience transient problems.
Both Monero and Zcash successfully transitioned, and Zcash is planning a 2nd block time change now! So, I think these fears are overblown. But this deserves its own section, so I added it here: ac-0353f40e / Faster Blocks for Bitcoin Cash · GitLab
On readiness: the safeguards are already specified in the deployment path — chipnet activates about six months before mainnet, with the full node implementation and boundary test vectors exercised there first; the lock-in date is fixed ahead of time so every stakeholder has a known deadline; and the outreach cadence (node teams, pools, exchanges, wallets, indexers) is the same one every prior BCH upgrade used.