There seems to be a lot of arguments in favour of the proposal. Are they relevant, though?
Since then, technology has progressed immensely and a thriving industry of Bitcoin competitors (“altcoins”, near-universally preferring lower block times) has emerged demonstrating viability of shorter block times.
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Yes, there is a technological progress. The progressing technology will require different, quantum-resistant cryptography soon. Quantum-resistant cryptography is not mature yet, but:
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Quantum-resistant cryptography is already known to require a significant multiple of the data sufficient for the currently used cryptography.
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Quantum-resistant cryptography will also require a significant multiple of the storage, network bandwidth and verification power.
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The “altcoins”:
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Did not demonstrate sufficient ability to handle the requirements of the quantum-resistant cryptography.
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Economically, the “altcoins” demonstrated that a greater block frequency does not guarantee a market advantage:
- Litecoin as an example demonstrates, that a 4x block frequency does not bring it an advantage over BCH sufficient to give Litecoin a higher market capitalization.
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…services that don’t even recognize transfers as ongoing until the 1st confirmation arrives.
- Services not recognizing transfers as ongoing until the 100th confirmation arrives are also possible. Does it matter, though?
Beyond actual waits, the blockchain’s pace feels slow because longer intervals dominate the timeline.
- What does matter is only the actual wait, not the information how long a block confirmation interval appears to be to somebody not waiting for confirmation.
a 2014 American Express survey pegs 13 minutes as the maximum acceptable wait
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Credit cards frequently have got a much greater settlement wait times than 13 seconds without their users requesting a shorter time.
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See also the relation between the market capitalization of LTC and the market capitalization of BCH.
New users often onboard via established services, where confirmation delays can sour their first BCH experience. Reducing block times to 1 minute offers a practical workaround: it slashes 1-conf waits into the realm of user tolerance (e.g., 95% confirm under 3 minutes)
- Not a serious argument. Who guarantees that the services would not require significantly greater numbers of confirmations after a block frequency change?
Compare this to Litecoin’s 2.5-minute blocks (where wait times will still exceed 3 minutes 30% of the time): BCH would leap ahead, offering a snappier experience than a key competitor.
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Actually, the example of Litecoin demonstrates the opposite: As confirmed by comparing market capitalizations of BCH and LTC, there is no significant advantage of 2.5 minute block interval over 10 minute interval.
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For the same reason why BTC does not compete with BCH in the media of exchange competition, LTC does not compete with BCH in the media of exchange competition in the long term.
core protocol changes don’t harm BCH’s image because they’re core changes, but because they’re poorly executed.
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A frequent “BCH age argument” goes as follows: “BCH has got the same age as BTC, since it has got the same genesis block as BTC.”
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Regardless of the above argument, the market treats BCH as younger than BTC as, e.g. the volatility lag of BCH compared to BTC demonstrates. What are the causes?
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One of the causes is the fact, that the “Bitcoin Cash” name is more than 8 years younger than the “bitcoin” name. Note that this cause is not even technical. I can imagine that some might call it “cosmetic”, yet its influence on the market reception/perception/sentiment was radical.
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The second cause is the fact, that Emergency Difficulty Adjustment (EDA) algorithm was not acceptable as a permanent solution and the Asert algorithm is much younger, possibly shortening the perceived “history length” of the coin even further.
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I think that, at least according to its market effect, another cause of BCH’s lag is also the split in 2018 and perhaps also the split in 2020, although the splits weren’t really changing BCH.
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Note that BCH is a coin. In numismatics, which is the original source of the coin’s value, history plays a significant role. The shorter the history is, the lower the value of the coin is and vice versa.
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Therefore, we should not change several main characteristics of the coin like in this case (block frequency, block rewards, …), if we do not want to harm the market-established continuity of the coin’s history.
Summing up, I do not see serious reasons why to make these changes now. There are more important issues that have greater priorities.